Personally, I think the gap between India and China will only get bigger, not smaller, in the next 10 to 20 years.
First, India missed a golden
opportunity to industrialise
From the end of the cold war in
1989 to the global financial crisis in 2008, more than 20 years were the golden
age of global economic globalization.
Over the past two decades,
developed countries in the west have shifted manufacturing to developing
countries,
China jumped at the chance and
India didn't!
After the subprime crisis in
2008, western countries had already felt the danger brought by the hollowing
out of manufacturing industry, and had strictly controlled the outflow of
manufacturing industry.
That's when India started to
focus on manufacturing, but the good times won't come again.
In recent years, India's
manufacturing industry has developed and foreign investment has also entered
India. However, foreign investment in India is quite different from that in
China.
Foreign investment in India is
aimed at capturing the domestic demand of India,
Foreign investment in China, the
purpose is not only to occupy the Chinese market, but to meet the needs of the
world!
Foreign investment in India, more
to meet the Indian government's market access requirements,
It is easy to judge that Indian
made products are not globally competitive and it is hard to see any Indian
made products outside India.
Second, India may miss out on a
fourth industrial revolution
Many people call breakthroughs in
high-speed communications, new energy, new materials, life sciences, artificial
intelligence and other fields the fourth industrial revolution.
But Indians are still keen on IT
and have invested little in the fourth industrial revolution.
I am not saying India is not
investing, but very little, less than one tenth of China.
In the future, the level of
science and technology will determine the strength of a country, or even the
destiny of a country.
Third, India's environmental
crisis
As a Chinese, I have witnessed
the destruction of China's environment by industrialization.
It is easy to destroy the
environment, but difficult to repair it. Today, the annual investment in
environmental protection in China far exceeds the sum of education and military
expenditure.
But it will take generations to
repair the environment, and some will never be.
Unfortunately, I saw similar
environmental damage in India, which has a higher population density and a
lower environmental carrying capacity than China.
India must solve its
environmental problems, which may cause social instability and unrest.
Fourth, India's education crisis
In particular, inequality in
education,
Personally, 20% of people in
India get a good education, but the quality and environment of education for
the other 80% is really bad.
Inequality in education leads to
inequality in life development,
India should pay special
attention to the quality of mass education and invest heavily in it.
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