Friday, 22 March 2024

What country won’t exist in 10 years?

 It’s a wild assumption, but one very likely case is Yemen

For those who quite don’t know, the situation in Yemen is like this

The green region is under Houthi control (backed by Iranians), the light red is controlled by Hadi government (backed by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain and even USA), the yellow is the Southern Transitional Council (a movement that wants South Yemen to come back as it existed prior to 1991), and the white is al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula, also called AQAP

Now one would expect either of the sides to fall, however seeing the way each one is sticking to their captured lands, it looks that another division of Yemen may actually happen. If the AQAP could be vanquished, then the country would end up with three separate authorities, leaving the whole field very much open for a possible trifurcation. It’s quite possible that the Southern Council could get vanquished too, if that happens then a bifurcation would happen, leading to once again a North and South Yemen to emerge.

The difference would be that unlike the previous versions where North Yemen was an independent Arab Republic and South Yemen was a communist state, this time North Yemen would be an Iran-backed client state whereas South Yemen would be a Saudi-UAE backed client state.

No comments:

Post a Comment