Sunday, 28 January 2024

What sounds extremely wrong, but is actually correct?

 One example of something that may sound counterintuitive but is actually correct is the "Monty Hall Problem." This probability puzzle is named after the host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal," Monty Hall.

Here's a brief explanation of the Monty Hall Problem:

1. A contestant is presented with three doors. Behind one door is a valuable prize (e.g., a car), and behind the other two doors are less desirable prizes (e.g., goats).

2. The contestant selects one of the three doors.

3. Before revealing the selected door's prize, the host, who knows what is behind each door, opens one of the other two doors to reveal a less desirable prize (e.g., a goat).

4. The contestant is then given the option to stick with their initial choice or switch to the other unopened door.

The counterintuitive aspect is that, statistically, it is more advantageous for the contestant to switch doors after the host reveals a goat. This is because the probability of initially choosing the door with the valuable prize is 1/3, and if the contestant switches, the probability becomes 2/3.

While it may seem strange that switching increases the chances of winning, simulations and mathematical analyses consistently demonstrate that the contestant has a better probability of winning by switching doors in the Monty Hall Problem. This counterintuitive result has led to interesting discussions in probability theory and has become a classic example of how probability can defy common intuition.

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