Will Indonesia become 2 countries in the future, West Muslim and East non-Muslim?

The future of Indonesia is a complex and multifaceted topic, influenced by historical, cultural, and political dynamics. While it is challenging to predict with certainty, let’s explore some relevant aspects:

1. Unity and Diversity:

   • Indonesia is a nation characterized by its diversity. It comprises 17,000 islands, over 300 ethnic groups, and 700 languages.
   • The national motto, “Bhinneka Tunggal Ika” (Unity in Diversity), reflects the country’s commitment to maintaining its territorial integrity despite its heterogeneity.

2. Religious Landscape:

   • Indonesia is the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, with approximately 87% of its population adhering to Islam.
   • However, it is essential to recognize that Indonesia is not monolithic in terms of religious practice. It also has significant populations of Christians, Hindus, Buddhists, and indigenous believers.

3. Political and Social Challenges:

   • Religious tensions have emerged periodically in Indonesia’s history. While the majority of Indonesians practice a moderate form of Islam, there are radical elements as well.
   • Elections often highlight divisions along religious, ethnic, and geographic lines. For instance, the 2019 presidential election witnessed a hardening of voting patterns based on religious affiliations¹.
   • Islamist groups have gained prominence, leading to concerns about the future direction of Indonesian Islam².

4. Economic Growth and Geopolitics:

   • Indonesia’s economy has been growing steadily, attracting interest from both China and Western nations³.
   • Its strategic location in Southeast Asia makes it a significant player in regional geopolitics.

5. National Identity and Pancasila:

   • The Pancasila, Indonesia’s state ideology, emphasizes national unity and pluralism. It provides a framework for accommodating diverse beliefs and cultures⁴.
   • While challenges exist, the commitment to Pancasila remains a unifying force.

6. Future Scenarios:

   • While the idea of Indonesia splitting into two separate countries—one Muslim-dominated and the other non-Muslim—is unlikely, it is essential to address underlying tensions.
   • Dialogue, inclusive governance, and interfaith understanding are crucial for maintaining Indonesia’s unity.

In summary, Indonesia’s future will depend on its ability to navigate religious, cultural, and political complexities while upholding its commitment to diversity and unity.