What if Napoleon had invaded the Ottoman Empire instead of Russia?

 This is actually quite an interesting scenario. But first we must establish a motive. The Russian Empire was invaded partly because the severe loss of trade with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland meant that the Continental System became untenable.

The Ottoman Empire was never part of the economic blockade. Although they have seen battle against Napoleonic France in Egypt and Syria. Let’s say that France offers to compensate Russia by petitioning the Balkans and Anatolia.

Russia would take Moldavia, Wallachia and Bulgaria in the Easten Balkans. Plus Armenia and Mesopotamia east of Anatolia.

France would set up sisterly republics in Bosnia, Herzegovina and Serbia while carving in a buffer state in Central Anatolia.

Greece would be divided equally between both spheres of influence because of its symbolic value to French Republicanism, Russian Orthodoxism and strategic position at the Marmara and Aegean Sea.

It is theoretically possible to circumvent the Austrian Empire along the eastern and western coast of Balkans. But that would leave their supply lines exposed to Austrian opportunism which previously cost them their Illyrian coastline.

The Illyrian Provinces then became part of France proper rather than any nebulous arrangement. France can’t use the coast either way as the United Kingdom controls the Mediterranean Sea. But perhaps Austria can be bribed into neutrality.

The Ottoman Army cannot defeat the combined forces of France and Russia. Instead the United Kingdom will do everything in their power to improve the situation. Imagine their support to Portugal and then some, as they provide up to date weaponry, equipment and training for the Ottoman Army.

The Janissary is perhaps the second biggest hurdle after Napoleon. They are supposed to be a loyal and disciplined standing army. In practice they’re incapable of reform and so self-serving that a sultan will disband the entire force in only a decade or so.

The Balkans is an obstructive and mountainous region. One where there won’t be victories. Only a slow grinding war of attrition as France and Russia closes in on the multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural valleys beyond the reach of the Royal Navy in the Black Sea.

It’s quite possible that the local Catholic and Orthodox Christians will rebel against the Ottoman Empire under the promise of liberty or native rule.

The United Kingdom will be unable and unwilling to interfere in that religious dichotomy. Instead focusing on rearmament and keeping the Ottoman economy afloat as they’re rapidly losing their richest territories.

The existing Janissary can be retrained and reorganised in short order. Combined with British Forces, they might stand a chance. But they are going to need a significantly bigger army to stop France and Russia.

Janissary recruitment suffers from several moral problems. But more importantly it takes too long to raise children to become young men and soldiers. I expect the United Kingdom to implore the Ottoman Empire to reinstitute Azab Muslim volunteers.

Using their naval superiority, the Anglo-Ottoman Alliance will transport Azab recruits from Anatolia, Egypt and even the Maghreb to Greece and Bulgaria for the epic culmination of the Balkan Campaign.

Should Constantinople fall, the United Kingdom will lose access to the Black Sea, the Ottoman Empire will lose their capital and the Russian Army in Caucasus will be able to link up with Napoleonic France before dividing the spoils.

Should Napoleonic France be victorious, the surviving European powers might just wait another decade until Napoleon kicks the bucket. And then challenge French military supremacy.

If the Ottoman Empire is able to force a stalemate, Napoleon will attempt to spin this in France as a victory like in Egypt and Syria. But abroad severe questions about France’s status as the preeminent superpower will be brought to bear.

Personally I would like to see the combined forces of the United Kingdom and the Ottoman Empire shatter Napoleonic France’s aura of invincibility. Ultimately forcing the other Great Powers to consider whether a Protestant naval power and a Muslim Empire would become the saviours of Europe.

But you already know how the War of the Sixth Coalition would go down…